Water Stewardship Information Sources
| Citation | Matkin, J, Copes, P, Griffiths, C and Panek, P. 2003. Fisheries, ocean ranching and aquaculture: Economic gain spatial analysis. Prepared for the Coast Information Team, BC Ministry of Forests. |
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| Organization | FLNRO |
| URL | https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/slrp/citbc/w-egsa-fish-final-31Mar04.pdf |
| Abstract/Description or Keywords | “For the purposes of this paper, policy is defined as involving the development of longterm strategic direction having broad application (e.g. ocean ranching).” - A Framework for Improved Decision-Making in the Pacific Salmon Fishery, June 2000, Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The Coast Economic Fishery Report (the CEFR) is intended to provide credible information and to develop decision-making tools for the Coast Information Team (CIT) that will assist in the resource management planning tables of the Central and North Coast, Queen Charlotte/Haida Gwaii and First Nations. The focus of the CEFR is on the long-term strategic direction and broad application to the coast fishery. The terms of reference for this project include answering the following key questions: • What are the best types of economic gain for this region? • How would these gains be obtained? • What is the potential size and structure of the gain? • What is the distribution of the gain? • What are the minimum and maximum levels of activity required? • What is required to realize each type of gain? • How vulnerable is each type to external changes? • What sectors would impair or enhance each type of gain? • What will be the impacts on the ecosystem and how can they be reduced or mitigated? The methodology followed to answer the terms of reference is first expert analysis by Dr. P. Copes a very experienced scholar and long time student of developments of the fishery in British Columbia. Dr. Copes wrote a vision piece for the project where he outlined the key economic gains possible and answered the above questions about the gains. Dr Copes looked at the comparative experience with new fishery ideas in other parts of the world including a trip to Alaska for input on ocean ranching and to Eastern Canada for input on community-based management. Further, we have used a technique called ‘scenario planning.’ Because the future is so hard to predict (witness recent events in New York City and Iraq) the decision-making tool chosen for this project is scenario planning. This tool, made famous by the Shell Oil Company, requires special attention to the impact of “critical uncertainties” or important driving forces affecting the future of the coast fishery. The goal of scenario planning is to measure the robustness of all potential reform ideas or new policies for economic gain in the fishery against certain economic, social, political, regulatory and natural uncertainties. For example, if the price of salmon is an uncertainty we must consider which reforms are robust at both ends of the spectrum i.e. when prices are high or when prices are low. The result of scenario planning is that we are not predicting the future, but rather learning how to manage whatever future unfolds. The CEFR identified three critical uncertainties for the coast fishery of the future: Ecological Health of the Ocean Habitat • Terms of Trade or Relative Market Prices of Fish • Extent of Effective Environmental Regulations Each of these uncertainties or driving forces could be either low or high in the next 20 years. No one knows for sure. It is unwise to gamble and guess the future by relying on best estimates. Yet the need to guess and hope for the best is our natural inclination and the unfortunate result is often planning reports that only gather dust because the authors guessed wrong. The more prudent course is to search for reforms or policies that are robust in an uncertain world by assessing what scenarios still work when the determinants around them are good or bad, high or low. The report graphs each of the economic gains against the critical uncertainties. The result is a visible picture of the robustness of the various scenarios. The report collects Canada census data and BC regional statistics and maps community profiles into the DFO management areas. The result is a clear picture of the trends for jobs and incomes in the CIT region. It is not a pretty picture. How do we reverse the evident decline of this region? What are the economic gain scenarios for the coast fishery with the most enduring future? The CEFR answers this question with a “vision” paper by Dr. Copes that outlines a future that meets, in a “balanced fashion,” the three major public policy objectives for Canada’s coastal fishery: • Economic efficiency • Environmental sustainability • Social equity The CEFR is laid out in five major sections. The introductory section outlines the major themes of the report and provides a discussion of the methodology for the study in the section entitled, ‘The Art of the Long View.’ The introduction also provides a discussion of the terms and qualifications for the data gathering done for the report. The next section is Dr. Parzival Copes’ vision piece, which outlines the CEFR’s eight scenarios for economic gain for the north and central coast fisheries. The third section, Community Profiles, provides a map of the region as a whole as well as maps of the individual communities and offers a detailed analysis of the workforce potential of the population. The fourth section, Mapping Critical Uncertainties, contains graphs and tables aimed at outlining the ‘robustness’ of the eight economic gain scenarios presented in section two. The last section presents the CEFR’s major findings and recommendations for the fisheries in the region. |
| Information Type | report |
| Regional Watershed | Central Coast; Vancouver Island North; Haida Gwaii |
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| Project status | complete |
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