| Citation |
Matthews, Carling Ian Picketts, Stephen Déry, Margot Parkes, & Aseem Sharma (2015) Climate Change & Resource Development Scenarios for the Nechako Watershed: Workshop Report May 2015, Prince George, BC: University of Northern British Columbia. |
| Abstract/Description or Keywords |
This project addresses an identified need for a comprehenseive assessment of how climate change and natural resource development will affect the Nechako region in the future. To begin to fulfill this research gap, a workshop was co-hosted by researchers from the University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC) and the Fraser Basin Council (FBC) on October 27th, 2014 at UNBC’s Prince George campus. This report only focuses on the UNBC scenarios workshop. Thirty-two stakeholders from eighteen groups with diverse interests in the watershed attended, including individuals representing agriculture, forestry, mining, oil and gas, non-governmental organizations, non-profit organizations, educational institutions, health authorities and all four levels of government. One way of dealing with complexities and uncertainties is to develop a range of future senarios that could plausibly come to bear. By developing a range of scenarios, the possibility of one being similar to the future that actually unfolds is more likely. Also it can inspire people to act in a way to make a certain future a reality. The four scenarios envisioned in the workshop represented both high and low levels of both resource development and climate change. The high and low levels of resource development were determined with input from the participants, and the high and low levels of climate change were based on detailed emissions scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The four scenarios are illustrated in the following figure. The main task for the workshop was for participants to create four scenarios for the Nechako watershed in the year 2050. Questions that guided the development of each scenario included how the region might change, the major impacts on natural and human systems, and how to proactively plan for and manage changes. A summary of the key themes compiled from the groups for each of the four scenarios follows: A. Low Climate Change, High Natural Resource Development - Although lower levels of climate change impacts are better than high, significant concerns may still exist in relation to water management, quality, and supply. - How resources are managed is potentially more important than how much resource development occurs for the social, natural, and economic systems to remain viable. B. High Climate Change, High Natural Resource Development - Tensions and conflicts may accumulate amongst natural, social, and economic systems with local and global stakeholders. - There may be large regional variations in how the landscape will change in response to climate change and resource development, with some areas in the region experiencing highly negative impacts. C. Low Climate Change, Low Natural Resource Development - Economic diversification in industries that are less resource-dependent, such as tourism and technology, would likely occur. - Concerns over climate impacts may lessen but would not subside. D. High Climate Change, Low Natural Resource Development - Potential reasons for low resource development could be related to the climate impacts on water availability, forcing new economies to emerge that are tech- or service-based. - If the economy is unable to diversify itself, the ability of communities to adjust to climate-related impacts and respond to events may be strained. Although climate change is often thought of as a global issue, the impacts of climate change are felt mostly at the local and regional scale. In the workshop, scenario emphasis was placed on the linkage between climate change and natural resource development, and participants highlighted impacts and actions for natural, social, and economic systems. Envisioning plausible futures for the watershed helps to facilitate knowledge-sharing, stimulates long-term thinking, and builds capacity for climate change action and appropriate resource management. Efforts will be made to communicate the workshop findings with local stakeholders, decision-makers, and the academic community through distribution of this report, a formal research paper, and community presentations. |
