| Abstract/Description or Keywords |
Deterministic hydrologic modelling was performed for three catchments within the KSM Project area. The University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) was used, and flow was simulated at stations SC-H1, NTWM-H1, and STWM-H1. Models were first calibrated using hydrologic and meteorologic data collected in-situ from 2008-2012. The major goal of this report is to simulate the hydrologic responses to climatic change in the 21st century. This includes changes in air temperature, precipitation, and glacierized area. Models were run with conditions anticipated for 2020, 2050, and 2080 for two ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC) emissions scenarios (A2 and B1). The Canadian Global Climate Model (GCM) CCMA CGCM3 was used for this analysis. A large number of GCMs exist, which produce a wide variety of climatic predictions given the same sets of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios. To assess the effects of uncertainty and sensitivity to changing inputs, hydrologic model climatic inputs were varied, and the hydrologic responses were examined. Air temperature and precipitation were systematically altered while keeping all other hydrologic model inputs the same. The amount of variability represented the amount of variability found in three GCMs. An additional complicating factor is the glacier cover in the study catchments. Future glacierized areas are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Fortunately, detailed glaciological studies have been performed in the project area (Rescan 2011, 2012b), yet responses to future climate remain uncertain. To assess the hydrologic effects of this uncertainty, the glacierized area in a catchment (SC-H1) was systematically altered. This uncertainty and sensitivity analysis allows a range of likely future hydrologic conditions to be assessed, and is a measurement of the certainty of the hydrologic predictions. |
