Water Stewardship Information Sources
| Citation | BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations. 2014. Simulating the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change on Fraser River Flood Scenarios, FINAL REPORT. BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations. |
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| Organization | FLNRO |
| URL | http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_safety/flood/pdfs_word/Simulating_Effects_of_Sea_Level_Rise_and_Climate_Change_on_Fraser_Flood_Scenarios_Final_Report_May-2014.pdf |
| Abstract/Description or Keywords | Ongoing development and growth in the floodplain areas of the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver region and the increased potential for major flood damage have raised questions over the adequacy of the existing dikes and historic flood protection standards. Several hundred thousand people, billions of dollars worth of development and extensive critical infrastructure rely on over 50 separate dikes totalling approximately 500 km. Since the early 1970’s the province has generally accepted a 1:200 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) event (or in the case of the Fraser River, the 1894 flood magnitude) to be the minimum provincial dike design standard for new dikes. However, preliminary quantitative risk analyses indicate that much higher standards may be justified for protection of densely populated urban areas. It must also be recognized that most of the existing dikes do not meet the current minimum provincial standard, and would only provide protection against smaller flood events. A re-examination of flood levels on the Lower Fraser River is now necessary because of sea level rise, potential climate change impacts on flood flows, and the need to update flood protection standards. However, the intent of this project is not to develop a new Fraser River dike design profile, but to provide a series of flood level profiles that can be used as a planning tool. Based on analyses of the best available scientific information, it is expected that the results of this project will help the province, local governments, diking authorities and others understand the relative significance of climate change impacts on Fraser River flooding and the implications of setting higher design standards. The Fraser Basin Council (FBC) has recently prepared “A Business Plan – Advancing a Collaborative, Regional Approach to Flood Management in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland” (Ref 1). The ministry’s flood scenario project aligns closely with one of 10 technical projects identified in the Business Plan as a priority for Phase 1. An advisory committee comprised of local government, ministry and other organization representatives was established, and this group reviewed the study Terms of Reference and draft report. It is expected that the output from this project will be utilized in other FBC coordinated projects such as the proposed risk analysis project, described as: “Region-wide analysis of current and future risk and vulnerability to flood hazards (i.e., what is vulnerable and what are the impacts, consequences and costs of a catastrophic flood in the Lower Mainland) at a coarse resolution.” |
| Information Type | report |
| Regional Watershed | Lower Fraser |
| Sub-watershed if known | Fraser River |
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