Water Stewardship Information Sources
| Citation | Schnorbus, M.A., K.E. Bennett, A.T. Werner and A.J. Berland, 2011. Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Peace, Campbell and Columbia Watersheds, British Columbia, Canada. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, 157 pp. |
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| Organization | PCIC |
| URL | https://pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Schnorbus.HydroModelling.FinalReport2.Apr2011.pdf |
| Abstract/Description or Keywords | The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) has completed a Hydrologic Modelling project with the aim of quantifying the hydrologic impacts of projected climate change in select British Columbia watersheds. The main objective of the Hydrologic Modelling project is to provide future projections of the impacts of climate change on monthly and annual streamflow in three BC watersheds: the Peace, Campbell and Columbia, for the 2050s, with particular emphasis on sites corresponding to BC Hydro power generation assets. Due to the scope of work required for this project, reporting is accomplished using two complementary but independent reports. The current report acts as the main reporting vehicle for the Hydrologic Modelling project, focusing predominantly on the methods employed and results obtained from the hydrologic modelling exercise itself. This report provides a thorough, yet concise, summary of the methodology, results and analysis of the hydrologic modelling and resultant hydrologic projections. Nevertheless, the scope and technical nature of this subject resists a simplified interpretation in a concise document. Consequently, the current report represents, as best as we could achieve, a compromise between a detailed technical treatment of results and an easily comprehended summary of findings. A companion report (Werner 2011)1 describes in greater detail the regional climate response throughout British Columbia based on the same climate projections that form the basis of the Hydrologic Modelling project. Our intended audience includes technical staff and managers at BC Hydro who are planning and allocating water resources. However, due to the physiographic and climatic variability of the three study areas, we also feel that our results are valid with respect to gaining a general understanding of the hydrological consequences of projected climate change within British Columbia. This should make our results accessible to the wider scientific and operational audience. The term “impacts”, as used in this report, refers to the consequences of climate change and variability on regional hydro-climatology and streamflow, which has implications for subsequent impacts studies on water resource systems and the environment. The report does not directly address implications for water resources system operations (e.g., capability to meet future hydro-power demand). Analysis using updated data and peer-reviewed methodology forms the basis for this work. Whenever possible, our intention was also to extend and improve upon existing results. In this context general improvements include the use of a larger suite of latest-generation global climate models (the results from which form the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report). The selection of climate change simulations used in this report covers multiple emissions scenarios and models, and includes projections for the 2050s that range from a future with relatively less warming and moistening (“cool/dry”) to relatively more warming and moistening (“warm/wet”). The hydrologic impact of the various projections was assessed with a high-resolution, spatially-distributed and physically-based hydrology model. An additional significant accomplishment of this project has been the generation of a substantial and comprehensive dataset of historical and projected hydrologic fluxes and state variables. This data is available for a large suite of climate projections, and captures model output at a daily resolution. Flux model output is available at a spatial resolution of 1/16 for spatial domains covering the three study areas, and streamflow data is available for several dozen sites within the study areas. High-resolution downscaled climate data has also been generated, which provides time series of various meteorological variables at high spatial resolution for a domain incorporating all of British Columbia plus a small portion of the United States. A detailed description and inventory of forcing and hydrologic model output data is provided in Appendix A to this report. |
| Information Type | report |
| Regional Watershed | Vancouver Island North |
| Sub-watershed if known | |
| Aquifer # | |
| Comments | |
| Project status | complete |
| Contact Name | Markus Schnorbus |
| Contact Email | [email protected] |